This post originally appeared during the lead-up to the 2020 US Presidential election. As we move towards the 2024 election, we do not currently face many of the operational hurdles that we did during the Coronavirus pandemic, but simulation modeling and analysis is still the perfect tool for polling station resource and layout planning and assessing the impacts of increases in electronic and mail-in voting.
July 17, 2020 – The November elections are around the corner and with it comes varying discussions about voting processes. As expected, Covid-19 has taken center stage in determining how the elections should be conducted. In some circles, e-voting is the safer option for the electorates while in others traditional in-person voting is viewed as the better option where security is concerned. But all agree that voters safety comes first and technology has an important role to play to achieve this safety.
Enter discrete event simulation and Modeling. The 2020 Elections provide government agencies, electioneering groups, and global observers the opportunity to apply digital solutions such as simulation to analyze diverse voting scenarios to develop a better process.
Discrete event simulation can model discrete sequences of events and the voters flow during the election is one. The check-in of a voter into a polling unit and the corresponding check-out are events that affect the entire voting system. Although simulation is where the work happens, the results or analysis need to be visualized. This is where modeling comes into play. The ability to visualize the voting process from a systematic perspective provides electoral commissions with the opportunity to analyze voting patterns and voter behavior for the upcoming elections.
Discrete Event Simulation and Electoral Bodies
As the build-up to the presidential election intensifies, the United States Electoral Assistance Commission continue to discuss solutions to expected challenges. These challenges include social distancing due to the pandemic, simplifying voting for voters with disabilities, and delivering mail-in and/or e-voting options.
In each of these instances, simulation models can help ease the planning and execution process to make voting easier for everyone. In the case of social distancing, plans are in place to put markers at a distance of 6 feet from the next. While this is commendable, long wait lines can easily become blurred as can be seen from scenarios that occurred during the Memorial Day Weekend. Thus, a more proactive approach to in-person voting is required if social distancing is to be adhered to.
Discrete event simulation models provide the tools needed to explore the relationship between polling facility layouts, the flow of voters, and the optimal number of voters which can easily be managed within a facility. The 3D visualization robust simulation software provides enables electoral commission representatives to view potential bottlenecks to schedules and provide solutions to mitigate them.
In terms of planning to ensure strict social distancing and sanitizing rules are adhered to, simulation models can help. In this case, an agent-based simulation model which focuses on individual agents can provide a more optimal analysis of voter behavioral patterns. Thus, voters become the agent and how they behave within a system or a polling unit can be simulated including the erratic patterns of outliers.
Analyzing how voters will respond to strict guidelines enable organizers to develop adequate social distancing rules and plans to enforce these rules for everyone. The simulation model can also advise the planning committee on the optimal number of booths and sanitization equipment that can serve a specific population optimally.
With the visualized data simulation models provide, developing schedules that limit the number of voters coming to a facility can be achieved. This data-driven process is more likely to ensure voters adhere to social distancing rules when compared to drawing social distancing markers on the floor and expecting everyone to keep stay within them.
Simulation and modeling provide support for addressing the accessibility challenges of voters with disabilities. In this case, a discrete event simulation model with parameters or inputs such as the rate of arrival for voters with disabilities and their check-in/check-out time can be integrated into the model. The model will provide accurate information on the time the average voter with a disability takes and its effect on the voting process.
A discrete event simulation model that integrates both voters with a disability and other individuals can be developed. Running simulations of this unique model will provide insight into the effect of conventional polling units to voters with disabilities. The electoral assistance commission can then leverage the data and insight from the simulation model to build or design facilities that cater to voters with disabilities. Thus, developing voting schedules and process optimized for voters with disabilities.
Simulation Modeling, E-voting, and the Integrity of the Election Process
Mainstream media has been awash with news about the integrity of e-voting and mail-in processes. In most discussions, the fear of voter fraud and suppression dominate the airwaves. A robust simulation model consisting of the various voting environments including in-person, mail-in, and online voting, can be developed to analyze the impact of e-voting on the entire electoral process.
A system dynamics simulation model can be used to gain a strategic view into a multi-faceted voting process. Within this model, inputs and constraints such as the integrity of voter verification, voter density, the security ratio of voting systems, and the possibility of acts of fraud can be integrated to ensure accuracy. Running a simulation based on these parameters will provide insight into the performance of a multi-faceted voting process or system.
The simulation results can then provide the data decision-makers need to decide if the risks of including e-voting systems are worth the rewards. The insights from such a model can also serve as the foundation needed to build secure and robust e-voting systems for the elections.
Conclusion
Simulation models provide a capable testing ground for both old and new ideas that can ensure the coming elections are successful despite the pandemic. The visual election flow discrete event simulation model developed by URI Votes using Simio provides a glimpse into the diverse ways simulation models can help decision-makers. You can learn more about the use of simulation and modeling technology by requesting a demo today.