While the last couple months have been pretty dry where I live here in the Northeastern part of the U.S., in the Southeastern part several severe hurricanes have already hit and it looks like more are coming. While every severe storm can have serious consequences, often the major difference between a severe storm and an outright disaster is the level of preparation.
Of course weather is just one of many potential causes of disasters. We have all seen floods, fires, earthquakes, and other disasters around the world that have been made much worse through inadequate planning and poor execution. Simulation can play a major role in preparing communities to avoid or at least reduce the impact of such disasters.
More accurate weather prediction is due in part to simulation. Combining advanced detection technology with sophisticated simulations has allowed us to become much better at predicting storm paths and severity. This allows for improved warnings and appropriate responses.
Simulation use in evacuation planning has a very high potential, but is not used as much as it could be. Communities should be able to examine various scenarios and evaluate the best ways to move people to safety, well before a dangerous situation actually occurs.
First-responder rescue efforts can also be pre-planned and evaluated. Where should various types of equipment be stored? How can it be moved? Who will staff it? What procedures should be used for various types of disasters?
As for relief scenarios, they too could be planned ahead of time with the assistance of simulation. What equipment and supplies should be stockpiled and where? How can it be quickly relocated? Who will staff it? The logistics of a large scale disaster-relief effort, including health care provisions, security at all levels, and even communications, (all of which often involve multi-organization coordination) is a great opportunity to showcase the true benefits of using simulation.
Large corporations and other organizations can also do their own simulation-based planning. Contingency plans for various scenarios can minimize the impact of a local or regional event and help ensure that a single event does not cripple the entire organization.
Louisiana State University has a relatively new center for disaster management and has organized a conference November 16-18 dealing with some of these issues.
“Be Prepared” is a motto that anyone planning for a disaster should live by; Simulation helps make that a bit easier.
Dave Sturrock
VP Products – Simio LLC